Humans will inevitably go extinct at some point, as extinction is the fate of all species. Predictions about when this will happen vary widely due to many uncertainties and risks. Here are some key points from scientific estimates and expert opinions:
- J. Richard Gott's doomsday argument suggests a 95% probability humans will be extinct within about 8 million years.
- Some experts estimate a 30% risk of extinction over the next 500 years, and an annual risk of about 0.05% per year on average.
- According to current expert surveys, there is roughly a 1% probability humans will go extinct by the year 2100.
- Various catastrophic scenarios include climate collapse, pandemics, nuclear war, asteroid impact, or artificial intelligence risks.
- A scientific study indicates that if current deforestation and resource consumption continue, civilization could collapse irreversibly in 20 to 40 years.
- Some prominent voices estimate human extinction could happen within the next 10,000 years if we don't expand to space colonies or solve existential threats.
- On the extreme long term, humans will become extinct when the sun expands and makes Earth uninhabitable in about a billion years.
- Other scientific forecasts predict humans and mammals may face extinction in about 250 million years due to extreme environmental changes like a supercontinent forming near the equator.
- According to paleontologist Henry Gee, mammalian species typically last around a million years, and Homo sapiens could last anywhere from thousands to millions of years.
- Artificial intelligence risks have been estimated to have a 5-15% chance of causing human extinction within the next few decades to a century.
Overall, while exact timing is unknowable, the near to mid-term risks (within this century to the next 10,000 years) appear significant based on current expert assessments. Human extinction could occur from self-inflicted ecological, technological, or accidental catastrophes, or from natural cosmic events in the far future.
