what is a super el nino 2023

A super El Niño is a weather phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, which can have a significant impact on weather patterns across the world. According to climate models and current conditions in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to remain above the El Niño threshold for the next several months. The Niño-3.4 Index, which measures the temperature of the Pacific Ocean, was 0.5 °C for April–June 2023, and El Niño conditions would need to last through at least the August–October average to qualify as an El Niño year. The probability of a strong El Niño, defined as Niño-3.4 index values exceeding 1.5C, rises above 50% for next fall and winter. The National Center for Atmospheric Research issued a forecast that the coming winter could bring a super El Niño, with strength rivaling the historic El Niño of 1997-1998. However, it is important to note that every El Niño is different, and the impacts of a super El Niño are uncertain.