The Cowboys’ path is extremely narrow but not completely gone as of Week 15 of the 2025 season. They essentially need to be perfect and get a “collapse” from Philadelphia.
Current situation
Dallas is 6-7-1 and effectively out of the wild-card race; the only realistic path is to win the NFC East. Philadelphia leads the division and controls the tiebreakers, so Dallas no longer has margin for error.
What Dallas must do
Dallas must win all three of its remaining regular-season games to have any chance. Those games are against the Chargers (home), then at Washington, then at the Giants, and all are essentially must-win “playoff” games already.
What they need from the Eagles
For Dallas to take the NFC East, the Eagles must lose all of their remaining games; a single Philadelphia win or a single Dallas loss would eliminate the Cowboys. Because of the current record gap and tiebreakers, there is no longer a viable path for Dallas through the NFC wild-card spots.
Overall playoff odds
Public projections put the Cowboys’ playoff probability around 1 percent, reflecting how unlikely it is that both “win out” for Dallas and “lose out” for Philadelphia happen together. Betting markets and statistical models broadly expect Dallas to miss the postseason unless that type of miracle scenario plays out.