The Bills are one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East, so they need both wins and some help to take the division. Their remaining path is narrow but still possible.
Current standings
The Patriots are 11-3 and the Bills are 10-4, with both clearly ahead of the Dolphins and Jets in the AFC East. This means Buffalo cannot afford another loss and likely needs New England to drop at least one more game.
What the Bills must do
Buffalo essentially has to win out, including upcoming games against the Browns and Jets, to finish 12-4 and stay in range of or ahead of New England’s record. Any Bills loss would almost certainly hand the division to the Patriots given the current one‑game gap and remaining schedule.
What needs to happen to the Patriots
Because New England holds the current lead and some tiebreak leverage, the Bills need the Patriots to lose at least one of their final games, which include the Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins. In most outlined scenarios, a Patriots loss in at least one divisional game (Jets or Dolphins) is required for Buffalo to win or gain the key tiebreakers in the AFC East race.
Key tiebreaker factors
Head‑to‑head is currently even, so the next tiebreakers are divisional record and then conference record. The Bills’ path involves staying perfect in their remaining divisional and AFC games while New England drops a divisional matchup, which would swing those tiebreakers toward Buffalo in any tied‑record scenario.