Afghanistan can qualify for the semi-finals of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 if England defeats South Africa by a significant margin that allows Afghanistan to surpass South Africa in net run-rate (NRR). Specifically, England must either:
- Beat South Africa by at least 207 runs if England bats first.
- Chase down South Africa's total within 11.1 overs if England bats second, assuming the target score is around 300.
If England achieves either of these outcomes, Afghanistan will qualify for their first-ever ICC ODI event semi-final alongside Australia from Group B. However, a win by South Africa or a smaller margin of victory for England means Afghanistan will be eliminated. Afghanistan themselves must aim to win their last group game against Australia to keep their chances alive, but ultimately, their fate depends on the England vs South Africa result. This qualification scenario is based primarily on net run-rates where South Africa holds a currently higher NRR (+2.140) compared to Afghanistan’s (-0.990).
