Currently, we are in La Niña conditions. La Niña began around September 2025, characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. These La Niña conditions are expected to continue through the winter of 2025-2026, with a likelihood of trending back to ENSO-neutral conditions by early 2026 (January to March). The La Niña event this year is anticipated to be weak and relatively short-lived.
Summary of Current Situation
- La Niña conditions officially started in September 2025.
- Cooler sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific characterize this phase.
- La Niña will likely persist through December 2025 to February 2026.
- Transition back to ENSO-neutral is expected in early 2026.
- This La Niña event is weak and less intense compared to typical events.
Thus, at this moment, it is not El Niño but La Niña influencing the global weather and climate patterns.