are we headed for a recession

The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals regarding a recession in 2025. While some major financial institutions and economists estimate a notable chance of recession this year—UBS warns of a 93% likelihood, while J.P. Morgan estimates around 40%—others emphasize that a full recession is not imminent yet but caution that risks are rising, especially given current policies and economic conditions. Notably, 22 U.S. states are either in recession or on the verge, driven by slowing immigration, tariffs, and federal job cuts. Factors such as job market softness, tariff impacts, and rising inflation are contributing to uncertainty and potential contraction in several sectors. There is also concern about possible stagflation, a combination of stagnant growth and inflation. However, positive drivers like investments in artificial intelligence and technology may offer some economic support. Overall, economists advise being watchful as the economy could tip into recession later in 2025 or 2026 depending on policy decisions and global economic conditions.